Smoking prevalence and its impacts on lung cancer mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa: an epidemiological study
Standard
Smoking prevalence and its impacts on lung cancer mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa: an epidemiological study. / Winkler, Volker; Ott, Jördis J; Cowan, Melanie; Becher, Heiko.
In: PREV MED, Vol. 57, No. 5, 01.11.2013, p. 634-40.Research output: SCORING: Contribution to journal › SCORING: Journal article › Research › peer-review
Harvard
APA
Vancouver
Bibtex
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
T1 - Smoking prevalence and its impacts on lung cancer mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa: an epidemiological study
AU - Winkler, Volker
AU - Ott, Jördis J
AU - Cowan, Melanie
AU - Becher, Heiko
N1 - © 2013.
PY - 2013/11/1
Y1 - 2013/11/1
N2 - BACKGROUND: Reliable mortality data are sparse for developing countries. Furthermore, risk factor prevalence information is hardly available and thus not taken into consideration when estimating mortality.METHODS: The authors used a validated, statistical model combined with representative smoking prevalence from WHO STEPS surveys to estimate lung cancer mortality for six Sub-Saharan African countries (Benin, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger, Sierra Leone, Swaziland). Results were compared to a reference database (GLOBOCAN). Using different smoking prevalence scenarios, future lung cancer deaths were estimated.RESULTS: The prevalence of current moderate smoking among males ranged from 8.7% to 34.6%. Prevalence was much lower among females. For all countries considered, our mortality estimates were higher than GLOBOCAN estimates that do not consider prevalence: Overall, we estimated 2405 lung cancer deaths for 2008 compared to 531 deaths estimated by GLOBOCAN. Up to 2030, lung cancer deaths are expected to increase in general and by over 100% in Benin and Niger. Even under the assumption of decrease in smoking prevalence, lung cancer mortality will rise.CONCLUSION: On the bases of detailed smoking prevalence information, our findings implicate a higher lung cancer burden in low income countries. The epidemiologic transition in African low-income countries alludes to the need for targeted health prevention efforts.
AB - BACKGROUND: Reliable mortality data are sparse for developing countries. Furthermore, risk factor prevalence information is hardly available and thus not taken into consideration when estimating mortality.METHODS: The authors used a validated, statistical model combined with representative smoking prevalence from WHO STEPS surveys to estimate lung cancer mortality for six Sub-Saharan African countries (Benin, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger, Sierra Leone, Swaziland). Results were compared to a reference database (GLOBOCAN). Using different smoking prevalence scenarios, future lung cancer deaths were estimated.RESULTS: The prevalence of current moderate smoking among males ranged from 8.7% to 34.6%. Prevalence was much lower among females. For all countries considered, our mortality estimates were higher than GLOBOCAN estimates that do not consider prevalence: Overall, we estimated 2405 lung cancer deaths for 2008 compared to 531 deaths estimated by GLOBOCAN. Up to 2030, lung cancer deaths are expected to increase in general and by over 100% in Benin and Niger. Even under the assumption of decrease in smoking prevalence, lung cancer mortality will rise.CONCLUSION: On the bases of detailed smoking prevalence information, our findings implicate a higher lung cancer burden in low income countries. The epidemiologic transition in African low-income countries alludes to the need for targeted health prevention efforts.
KW - Adolescent
KW - Adult
KW - Africa South of the Sahara
KW - Cause of Death
KW - Cross-Sectional Studies
KW - Developing Countries
KW - Female
KW - Health Surveys
KW - Humans
KW - Lung Neoplasms
KW - Male
KW - Middle Aged
KW - Risk Factors
KW - Smoking
KW - Young Adult
U2 - 10.1016/j.ypmed.2013.08.022
DO - 10.1016/j.ypmed.2013.08.022
M3 - SCORING: Journal article
C2 - 24012830
VL - 57
SP - 634
EP - 640
JO - PREV MED
JF - PREV MED
SN - 0091-7435
IS - 5
ER -