Smoking prevalence and its impacts on lung cancer mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa: an epidemiological study

TY - JOUR

T1 - Smoking prevalence and its impacts on lung cancer mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa: an epidemiological study

AU - Winkler, Volker

AU - Ott, Jördis J

AU - Cowan, Melanie

AU - Becher, Heiko

N1 - © 2013.

PY - 2013/11/1

Y1 - 2013/11/1

N2 - BACKGROUND: Reliable mortality data are sparse for developing countries. Furthermore, risk factor prevalence information is hardly available and thus not taken into consideration when estimating mortality.METHODS: The authors used a validated, statistical model combined with representative smoking prevalence from WHO STEPS surveys to estimate lung cancer mortality for six Sub-Saharan African countries (Benin, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger, Sierra Leone, Swaziland). Results were compared to a reference database (GLOBOCAN). Using different smoking prevalence scenarios, future lung cancer deaths were estimated.RESULTS: The prevalence of current moderate smoking among males ranged from 8.7% to 34.6%. Prevalence was much lower among females. For all countries considered, our mortality estimates were higher than GLOBOCAN estimates that do not consider prevalence: Overall, we estimated 2405 lung cancer deaths for 2008 compared to 531 deaths estimated by GLOBOCAN. Up to 2030, lung cancer deaths are expected to increase in general and by over 100% in Benin and Niger. Even under the assumption of decrease in smoking prevalence, lung cancer mortality will rise.CONCLUSION: On the bases of detailed smoking prevalence information, our findings implicate a higher lung cancer burden in low income countries. The epidemiologic transition in African low-income countries alludes to the need for targeted health prevention efforts.

AB - BACKGROUND: Reliable mortality data are sparse for developing countries. Furthermore, risk factor prevalence information is hardly available and thus not taken into consideration when estimating mortality.METHODS: The authors used a validated, statistical model combined with representative smoking prevalence from WHO STEPS surveys to estimate lung cancer mortality for six Sub-Saharan African countries (Benin, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger, Sierra Leone, Swaziland). Results were compared to a reference database (GLOBOCAN). Using different smoking prevalence scenarios, future lung cancer deaths were estimated.RESULTS: The prevalence of current moderate smoking among males ranged from 8.7% to 34.6%. Prevalence was much lower among females. For all countries considered, our mortality estimates were higher than GLOBOCAN estimates that do not consider prevalence: Overall, we estimated 2405 lung cancer deaths for 2008 compared to 531 deaths estimated by GLOBOCAN. Up to 2030, lung cancer deaths are expected to increase in general and by over 100% in Benin and Niger. Even under the assumption of decrease in smoking prevalence, lung cancer mortality will rise.CONCLUSION: On the bases of detailed smoking prevalence information, our findings implicate a higher lung cancer burden in low income countries. The epidemiologic transition in African low-income countries alludes to the need for targeted health prevention efforts.

KW - Adolescent

KW - Adult

KW - Africa South of the Sahara

KW - Cause of Death

KW - Cross-Sectional Studies

KW - Developing Countries

KW - Female

KW - Health Surveys

KW - Humans

KW - Lung Neoplasms

KW - Male

KW - Middle Aged

KW - Risk Factors

KW - Smoking

KW - Young Adult

U2 - 10.1016/j.ypmed.2013.08.022

DO - 10.1016/j.ypmed.2013.08.022

M3 - SCORING: Journal article

C2 - 24012830

VL - 57

SP - 634

EP - 640

JO - PREV MED

JF - PREV MED

SN - 0091-7435

IS - 5

ER -