Residual risk identified in routine noninvasive follow-up assessments in pulmonary arterial hypertension

TY - JOUR

T1 - Residual risk identified in routine noninvasive follow-up assessments in pulmonary arterial hypertension

AU - Ostermann, Jonna

AU - Pott, Julian

AU - Hennigs, Jan K

AU - Roedl, Kevin

AU - Sinning, Christoph

AU - Harbaum, Lars

AU - Klose, Hans

N1 - Copyright ©The authors 2023.

PY - 2023/5

Y1 - 2023/5

N2 - BACKGROUND: The 2022 ESC/ERS guidelines on pulmonary hypertension recommend noninvasive risk assessments based on three clinical variables during follow-up in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). We set out to test whether residual risk can be captured from routinely measured noninvasive clinical variables during follow-up in PAH.METHODS: We retrospectively studied 298 incident PAH patients from a German pulmonary hypertension centre who underwent routine noninvasive follow-up assessments including exercise testing, echocardiography, electrocardiography, pulmonary function testing and biochemistry. To select variables, we used least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-regularised Cox regression models. Outcome was defined as mortality or lung transplant after first follow-up assessment.RESULTS: 12 noninvasive variables that were associated with outcomes in a training sub-cohort (n=208) after correction for multiple testing entered LASSO modelling. A model combining seven variables discriminated 1-year (area under the curve (AUC) 0.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68-0.99, p=8.4×10-6) and 3-year (AUC 0.81, 95% CI 0.70-0.92, p=2.9×10-8) outcome status in a replication sub-cohort (n=90). The model's discriminatory ability was comparable to that of the guideline approach in the replication sub-cohort. From the individual model components, World Health Organization functional class, 6-min walking distance and the tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion to systolic pulmonary arterial pressure (TAPSE/sPAP) ratio were sensitive to treatment initiation. Addition of TAPSE/sPAP ratio to the guideline approach numerically increased its ability to discriminate outcome status.CONCLUSION: Our real-world data suggest that residual risk can be captured by noninvasive clinical procedures during routine follow-up assessments in patients with PAH and highlights the potential use of echocardiographic imaging to refine risk assessment.

AB - BACKGROUND: The 2022 ESC/ERS guidelines on pulmonary hypertension recommend noninvasive risk assessments based on three clinical variables during follow-up in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). We set out to test whether residual risk can be captured from routinely measured noninvasive clinical variables during follow-up in PAH.METHODS: We retrospectively studied 298 incident PAH patients from a German pulmonary hypertension centre who underwent routine noninvasive follow-up assessments including exercise testing, echocardiography, electrocardiography, pulmonary function testing and biochemistry. To select variables, we used least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-regularised Cox regression models. Outcome was defined as mortality or lung transplant after first follow-up assessment.RESULTS: 12 noninvasive variables that were associated with outcomes in a training sub-cohort (n=208) after correction for multiple testing entered LASSO modelling. A model combining seven variables discriminated 1-year (area under the curve (AUC) 0.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68-0.99, p=8.4×10-6) and 3-year (AUC 0.81, 95% CI 0.70-0.92, p=2.9×10-8) outcome status in a replication sub-cohort (n=90). The model's discriminatory ability was comparable to that of the guideline approach in the replication sub-cohort. From the individual model components, World Health Organization functional class, 6-min walking distance and the tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion to systolic pulmonary arterial pressure (TAPSE/sPAP) ratio were sensitive to treatment initiation. Addition of TAPSE/sPAP ratio to the guideline approach numerically increased its ability to discriminate outcome status.CONCLUSION: Our real-world data suggest that residual risk can be captured by noninvasive clinical procedures during routine follow-up assessments in patients with PAH and highlights the potential use of echocardiographic imaging to refine risk assessment.

U2 - 10.1183/23120541.00072-2023

DO - 10.1183/23120541.00072-2023

M3 - SCORING: Journal article

C2 - 37260464

VL - 9

JO - ERJ OPEN RES

JF - ERJ OPEN RES

SN - 2312-0541

IS - 3

M1 - 00072-2023

ER -