Trajectories of depressive and anxiety symptoms and associated risk factors during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany

BACKGROUND: Most COVID-19-related mental health research focused on average levels of mental health parameters in the general population. However, considering heterogeneous groups and their long-term responses could deepen our understanding of mental health during community crises. This four-wave study aimed to (1) identify subgroups with different trajectories of depressive and anxiety symptoms in the German general population, and (2) investigate associated risk factors.

METHODS: We analyzed self-report data from N = 1257 German adults participating in a European cohort study, assessed in summer 2020 (T1), and at 6 (T2), 12 (T3), and 30 months (T4). Depressive and anxiety symptoms were measured using the PHQ-4. Sociodemographic, health-related, and pandemic-related variables were assessed at baseline. We applied growth mixture modeling to identify subgroups of symptom trajectories and conducted multinomial logistic regression to examine factors associated with class membership.

RESULTS: We identified six symptom trajectories: Low-stable (n = 971, 77.2 %), Continuous deterioration (n = 30, 2.4 %), Transient deterioration (n = 75, 6.0 %), Continuous improvement (n = 97, 7.7 %), Transient improvement (n = 38, 3.0 %) and Chronicity (n = 46, 3.7 %). Age, education, work status, mental health diagnoses, self-reported health, and pandemic-related news consumption were significantly associated with subgroup membership.

LIMITATIONS: The generalizability of the study is constrained by an unrepresentative sampling method, a notable dropout rate, and limited consideration of risk factors.

CONCLUSION: Most people experienced low symptoms or improvement during the pandemic, while others experienced chronic or transient symptoms. Specific risk factors were associated with these trajectories, revealing nuanced mental health dynamics.