SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study
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SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study. / COVIDSurg Collaborative, GlobalSurg Collaborative .
In: BRIT J SURG, Vol. 108, No. 9, 27.09.2021, p. 1056-1063.Research output: SCORING: Contribution to journal › SCORING: Journal article › Research › peer-review
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T1 - SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study
AU - COVIDSurg Collaborative, GlobalSurg Collaborative
AU - Betz, Christian Stephan
AU - Busch, Chia-Jung
AU - Bier, Johannes
AU - Böttcher, Arne
AU - Burg, Simon
AU - Busch, Chia-Jung
AU - Bußmann, Lara
AU - Gosau, Martin
AU - Heuer, Annika
AU - Izbicki, Jakob
AU - Klatte, Till Orla
AU - König, Daniela
AU - Köpke, Leon-Gordian
AU - Möckelmann, Nikolaus
AU - Nitschke, Christine
AU - Praetorius, Mark Joachim
AU - Priemel, Matthias
AU - Stadlhofer, Rupert
AU - Stangenberg, Martin
AU - Uzunoglu, Faik Güntac
AU - Wittig, Lukas
AU - Zech, Henrike Barbara Antonia Angelika
AU - Zeller, Nina
N1 - © The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of BJS Society Ltd. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
PY - 2021/9/27
Y1 - 2021/9/27
N2 - BACKGROUND: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling.METHODS: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty.RESULTS: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year.CONCLUSION: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.
AB - BACKGROUND: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling.METHODS: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty.RESULTS: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year.CONCLUSION: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.
U2 - 10.1093/bjs/znab101
DO - 10.1093/bjs/znab101
M3 - SCORING: Journal article
C2 - 33761533
VL - 108
SP - 1056
EP - 1063
JO - BRIT J SURG
JF - BRIT J SURG
SN - 0007-1323
IS - 9
ER -