For young patients with high-risk CLL, BTK-/PI3K-inhibitors or allogeneic stem cell transplantation (alloHCT) are considered. Patients with a low risk of non-relapse mortality (NRM) but a high risk of failure of targeted therapy may benefit most from alloHCT. We performed Cox regression analyses to identify risk factors for 2-year NRM and 5-year event-free survival (using EFS as a surrogate for long-term disease control) in a large, updated EBMT registry cohort (n= 694). For the whole cohort, 2-year NRM was 28% and 5-year EFS 37%. Higher age, lower performance status, unrelated donor type and unfavorable sex-mismatch had a significant adverse impact on 2-year NRM. Two-year NRM was calculated for good- and poor-risk reference patients. Predicted 2-year-NRM was 11 and 12% for male and female good-risk patients compared with 42 and 33% for male and female poor-risk patients. For 5-year EFS, age, performance status, prior autologous HCT, remission status and sex-mismatch had a significant impact, whereas del(17p) did not. The model-based prediction of 5-year EFS was 55% and 64%, respectively, for male and female good-risk patients. Good-risk transplant candidates with high-risk CLL and limited prognosis either on or after failure of targeted therapy should still be considered for alloHCT.
