Prediction of dementia of Alzheimer type by different types of subjective cognitive decline

INTRODUCTION: Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) is a risk condition for dementia, including dementia of Alzheimer type (DAT).

METHODS: We report sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) for conversion to all-cause dementia, and DAT in different SCD types (decline in memory, assocated worries, longitudinal consitency, of the AgeCoDe study (n = 2.402, 12 years follow-up).

RESULTS: 82.7% of those converting to any dementia and 84.4% of those converting with DAT at follow-up, reported memory decline and fulfilled criteria of SCD at least at one time point before. SCD with worries at two consecutive time points showed a specificity of 92.2% for any dementia and also for DAT as well as a PPV of 44.3% for any dementia and of 36.9% for DAT at follow-up at the expense of low sensitivity.

DISCUSSION: Different SCD subtypes were either sensitive or specific for future all-cause dementia and DAT in cognitively unimpaired individuals. Modest PPV of the most specific SCD subtypes were achieved in this low prevalence population.