Predicting the Impact of Alcohol Taxation Increases on Mortality-A Comparison of Different Estimation Techniques
Standard
Predicting the Impact of Alcohol Taxation Increases on Mortality-A Comparison of Different Estimation Techniques. / Tran, Alexander; Jiang, Huan; Kim, Kawon Victoria; Room, Robin; Štelemėkas, Mindaugas; Lange, Shannon; Rovira, Pol; Rehm, Jürgen.
In: ALCOHOL ALCOHOLISM, Vol. 57, No. 4, 09.07.2022, p. 500-507.Research output: SCORING: Contribution to journal › SCORING: Journal article › Research › peer-review
Harvard
APA
Vancouver
Bibtex
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
T1 - Predicting the Impact of Alcohol Taxation Increases on Mortality-A Comparison of Different Estimation Techniques
AU - Tran, Alexander
AU - Jiang, Huan
AU - Kim, Kawon Victoria
AU - Room, Robin
AU - Štelemėkas, Mindaugas
AU - Lange, Shannon
AU - Rovira, Pol
AU - Rehm, Jürgen
N1 - © The Author(s) 2022. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.
PY - 2022/7/9
Y1 - 2022/7/9
N2 - AIMS: To examine how standard analytical approaches to model mortality outcomes of alcohol use compare to the true results using the impact of the March 2017 alcohol taxation increase in Lithuania on all-cause mortality as an example.METHODS: Four methodologies were used: two direct methodologies: (a) interrupted time-series on mortality and (b) comparing predictions based on time-series modeling with the real number of deaths for the year following the implementation of the tax increase; and two indirect methodologies: (c) combining a regression-based estimate for the impact of taxation on alcohol consumption with attributable-fraction methodology and (d) using price elasticities from meta-analyses to estimate the impact on alcohol consumption before applying attributable-fraction methodology.RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: While all methodologies estimated reductions in all-cause mortality, especially for men, there was substantial variability in the level of mortality reductions predicted. The indirect methodologies had lower predictions as the meta-analyses on elasticities and risk relations seem to underestimate the true values for Lithuania. Directly estimated effects of taxation based on the actual mortalities seem to best represent the true reductions in alcohol-attributable mortality. A significant increase in alcohol excise taxation had a marked impact on all-cause mortality in Lithuania.
AB - AIMS: To examine how standard analytical approaches to model mortality outcomes of alcohol use compare to the true results using the impact of the March 2017 alcohol taxation increase in Lithuania on all-cause mortality as an example.METHODS: Four methodologies were used: two direct methodologies: (a) interrupted time-series on mortality and (b) comparing predictions based on time-series modeling with the real number of deaths for the year following the implementation of the tax increase; and two indirect methodologies: (c) combining a regression-based estimate for the impact of taxation on alcohol consumption with attributable-fraction methodology and (d) using price elasticities from meta-analyses to estimate the impact on alcohol consumption before applying attributable-fraction methodology.RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: While all methodologies estimated reductions in all-cause mortality, especially for men, there was substantial variability in the level of mortality reductions predicted. The indirect methodologies had lower predictions as the meta-analyses on elasticities and risk relations seem to underestimate the true values for Lithuania. Directly estimated effects of taxation based on the actual mortalities seem to best represent the true reductions in alcohol-attributable mortality. A significant increase in alcohol excise taxation had a marked impact on all-cause mortality in Lithuania.
KW - Alcohol Drinking
KW - Alcoholic Beverages
KW - Commerce
KW - Ethanol
KW - Humans
KW - Male
KW - Taxes
U2 - 10.1093/alcalc/agac003
DO - 10.1093/alcalc/agac003
M3 - SCORING: Journal article
C2 - 35217852
VL - 57
SP - 500
EP - 507
JO - ALCOHOL ALCOHOLISM
JF - ALCOHOL ALCOHOLISM
SN - 0735-0414
IS - 4
ER -