Objective: About 50 - 70 % of the patients with substance abuse disorders who are mandated to forensic treatment according to the section 64 of the German penal code are discharged from treatment irregularly. Previous research identified a number of potential risk factors for irregular treatment dropout. Systematic assessment of risks factors and their consideration for treatment planning may help to improve treatment retention. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify groups of patients with a comparable risk profile for treatment dropout. Methods: From 2007 - 2012, patients entering forensic treatment completed the MATE-Crimi and a sociodemographic questionnaire. Results: From 431 patients entering forensic treatment, 357 patients agreed to participate. Of the 357 included patients 35.9 % had completed the forensic treatment irregular. Using cox regression, young age, low treatment motivation and a primary criminal behaviour with the substance use as a consequence of criminal behaviour were identified as risk factors for early drop-out. A subsequent analysis of latent classes using these variables resulted in three classes. Conclusions: Our study revealed a small number of risk factors being relevant for treatment drop-out. Furthermore, we identified three groups of patients with different risk profiles. Next steps include the development of treatment pathways for these patient groups.
