Negative affect and a fluctuating jumping to conclusions bias predict subsequent paranoia in daily life. An online experience sampling study

TY - JOUR

T1 - Negative affect and a fluctuating jumping to conclusions bias predict subsequent paranoia in daily life. An online experience sampling study

AU - Lüdtke, Thies

AU - Kriston, Levente

AU - Schröder, Johanna

AU - Lincoln, Tania M

AU - Moritz, Steffen

N1 - Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PY - 2017/9

Y1 - 2017/9

N2 - BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Negative affect and a tendency to "jump to conclusions" (JTC) are associated with paranoia. So far, only negative affect has been examined as a precursor of subsequent paranoia in daily life using experience sampling (ESM). We addressed this research gap and used ESM to test whether JTC fluctuates in daily life, whether it predicts subsequent paranoia, and whether it mediates the effect of negative affect on paranoia.METHODS: Thirty-five participants with schizophrenia spectrum disorders repeatedly self-reported negative affect, JTC, and paranoia via online questionnaires on two consecutive days. We measured JTC with a paradigm consisting of ambiguous written scenarios. Multilevel linear models were conducted.RESULTS: Most participants showed JTC consistently on two days rather than only on one day. When time was used as a predictor of JTC, significant slope variance indicated that for a subgroup of participants JTC fluctuated over time. For 48% of participants, these fluctuations equaled changes of approximately ±1 point on the four-point JTC scale within one day. There was no mediation. However, negative affect and JTC both significantly predicted subsequent paranoia.LIMITATIONS: The ESM assessment period was short and encompassed few assessments (8 in total).CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that JTC is both stable (regarding its mere occurrence) and fluctuating simultaneously (regarding its magnitude). Although JTC was not a mediator linking negative affect and paranoia, it did predict paranoia. Further ESM studies on JTC are needed to confirm our findings in longer assessment periods and with other JTC paradigms.

AB - BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Negative affect and a tendency to "jump to conclusions" (JTC) are associated with paranoia. So far, only negative affect has been examined as a precursor of subsequent paranoia in daily life using experience sampling (ESM). We addressed this research gap and used ESM to test whether JTC fluctuates in daily life, whether it predicts subsequent paranoia, and whether it mediates the effect of negative affect on paranoia.METHODS: Thirty-five participants with schizophrenia spectrum disorders repeatedly self-reported negative affect, JTC, and paranoia via online questionnaires on two consecutive days. We measured JTC with a paradigm consisting of ambiguous written scenarios. Multilevel linear models were conducted.RESULTS: Most participants showed JTC consistently on two days rather than only on one day. When time was used as a predictor of JTC, significant slope variance indicated that for a subgroup of participants JTC fluctuated over time. For 48% of participants, these fluctuations equaled changes of approximately ±1 point on the four-point JTC scale within one day. There was no mediation. However, negative affect and JTC both significantly predicted subsequent paranoia.LIMITATIONS: The ESM assessment period was short and encompassed few assessments (8 in total).CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that JTC is both stable (regarding its mere occurrence) and fluctuating simultaneously (regarding its magnitude). Although JTC was not a mediator linking negative affect and paranoia, it did predict paranoia. Further ESM studies on JTC are needed to confirm our findings in longer assessment periods and with other JTC paradigms.

U2 - 10.1016/j.jbtep.2016.08.014

DO - 10.1016/j.jbtep.2016.08.014

M3 - SCORING: Journal article

C2 - 27639287

VL - 56

SP - 106

EP - 112

JO - J BEHAV THER EXP PSY

JF - J BEHAV THER EXP PSY

SN - 0005-7916

ER -