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Lung cancer in South Africa: a forecast to 2025 based on smoking prevalence data

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Lung cancer in South Africa: a forecast to 2025 based on smoking prevalence data. / Winkler, Volker; Mangolo, Nosimanana J; Becher, Heiko.

In: BMJ OPEN, Vol. 5, No. 3, 2015, p. Art. e006993.

Research output: SCORING: Contribution to journal › SCORING: Journal article › Research › peer-review

Harvard

Winkler, V, Mangolo, NJ & Becher, H 2015, 'Lung cancer in South Africa: a forecast to 2025 based on smoking prevalence data', BMJ OPEN, vol. 5, no. 3, pp. Art. e006993. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2014-006993

APA

Winkler, V., Mangolo, N. J., & Becher, H. (2015). Lung cancer in South Africa: a forecast to 2025 based on smoking prevalence data. BMJ OPEN, 5(3), Art. e006993. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2014-006993

Vancouver

Winkler V, Mangolo NJ, Becher H. Lung cancer in South Africa: a forecast to 2025 based on smoking prevalence data. BMJ OPEN. 2015;5(3):Art. e006993. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2014-006993

Bibtex

@article{8ec90b50666c4ef5bbe6028ee3eb6b82,
title = "Lung cancer in South Africa: a forecast to 2025 based on smoking prevalence data",
abstract = "OBJECTIVE: This study aims to forecast lung cancer mortality with respect to recent changes in smoking prevalence and compares the results to estimates from GLOBOCAN and the Global Burden of Disease study.SETTING: An established epidemiological model is applied to detailed smoking prevalence data from South Africa to estimate lung cancer mortality from 2010 to 2025.PARTICIPANTS: Data from the South Africa Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2003 was analysed by sex and ethnic group, and combined with longitudinal estimates on smoking prevalence from 1980 to 2010.PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Results provide detailed data on tobacco smoking behaviour by age, sex and ethnic group as well as modelled age-adjusted lung cancer mortality and number of yearly lung cancer deaths.RESULTS: From 2010 to 2025, a decrease in age-adjusted lung cancer mortality is shown from 17.1 to 14.1 among men; whereas rates were stable around 7.2 among women. As a consequence, the estimated number of yearly lung cancer deaths is expected to increase slightly for men and more for women. With respect to ethnic groups, male mortality is expected to be highest for Asians and lowest for blacks. Female rates were lowest for Asians and highest for whites and for coloured.CONCLUSIONS: Mortality estimates of this study are close to the WHO mortality database and to Global Burden of Disease estimates for 2010, but significantly lower compared with GLOBOCAN estimates. In conclusion, our study demonstrates the impact of demographic changes and the positive effects of antismoking policy on lung cancer mortality in South Africa. Results may help decision makers to further improve smoking control.",
keywords = "Adolescent, Adult, African Continental Ancestry Group, Age Factors, Aged, Asian Continental Ancestry Group, European Continental Ancestry Group, Female, Forecasting, Health Surveys, Humans, Lung Neoplasms, Male, Middle Aged, Prevalence, Sex Factors, Smoking, South Africa, Young Adult",
author = "Volker Winkler and Mangolo, {Nosimanana J} and Heiko Becher",
note = "Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.",
year = "2015",
doi = "10.1136/bmjopen-2014-006993",
language = "English",
volume = "5",
pages = "Art. e006993",
journal = "BMJ OPEN",
issn = "2044-6055",
publisher = "British Medical Journal Publishing Group",
number = "3",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Lung cancer in South Africa: a forecast to 2025 based on smoking prevalence data

AU - Winkler, Volker

AU - Mangolo, Nosimanana J

AU - Becher, Heiko

N1 - Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

PY - 2015

Y1 - 2015

N2 - OBJECTIVE: This study aims to forecast lung cancer mortality with respect to recent changes in smoking prevalence and compares the results to estimates from GLOBOCAN and the Global Burden of Disease study.SETTING: An established epidemiological model is applied to detailed smoking prevalence data from South Africa to estimate lung cancer mortality from 2010 to 2025.PARTICIPANTS: Data from the South Africa Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2003 was analysed by sex and ethnic group, and combined with longitudinal estimates on smoking prevalence from 1980 to 2010.PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Results provide detailed data on tobacco smoking behaviour by age, sex and ethnic group as well as modelled age-adjusted lung cancer mortality and number of yearly lung cancer deaths.RESULTS: From 2010 to 2025, a decrease in age-adjusted lung cancer mortality is shown from 17.1 to 14.1 among men; whereas rates were stable around 7.2 among women. As a consequence, the estimated number of yearly lung cancer deaths is expected to increase slightly for men and more for women. With respect to ethnic groups, male mortality is expected to be highest for Asians and lowest for blacks. Female rates were lowest for Asians and highest for whites and for coloured.CONCLUSIONS: Mortality estimates of this study are close to the WHO mortality database and to Global Burden of Disease estimates for 2010, but significantly lower compared with GLOBOCAN estimates. In conclusion, our study demonstrates the impact of demographic changes and the positive effects of antismoking policy on lung cancer mortality in South Africa. Results may help decision makers to further improve smoking control.

AB - OBJECTIVE: This study aims to forecast lung cancer mortality with respect to recent changes in smoking prevalence and compares the results to estimates from GLOBOCAN and the Global Burden of Disease study.SETTING: An established epidemiological model is applied to detailed smoking prevalence data from South Africa to estimate lung cancer mortality from 2010 to 2025.PARTICIPANTS: Data from the South Africa Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2003 was analysed by sex and ethnic group, and combined with longitudinal estimates on smoking prevalence from 1980 to 2010.PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Results provide detailed data on tobacco smoking behaviour by age, sex and ethnic group as well as modelled age-adjusted lung cancer mortality and number of yearly lung cancer deaths.RESULTS: From 2010 to 2025, a decrease in age-adjusted lung cancer mortality is shown from 17.1 to 14.1 among men; whereas rates were stable around 7.2 among women. As a consequence, the estimated number of yearly lung cancer deaths is expected to increase slightly for men and more for women. With respect to ethnic groups, male mortality is expected to be highest for Asians and lowest for blacks. Female rates were lowest for Asians and highest for whites and for coloured.CONCLUSIONS: Mortality estimates of this study are close to the WHO mortality database and to Global Burden of Disease estimates for 2010, but significantly lower compared with GLOBOCAN estimates. In conclusion, our study demonstrates the impact of demographic changes and the positive effects of antismoking policy on lung cancer mortality in South Africa. Results may help decision makers to further improve smoking control.

KW - Adolescent

KW - Adult

KW - African Continental Ancestry Group

KW - Age Factors

KW - Aged

KW - Asian Continental Ancestry Group

KW - European Continental Ancestry Group

KW - Female

KW - Forecasting

KW - Health Surveys

KW - Humans

KW - Lung Neoplasms

KW - Male

KW - Middle Aged

KW - Prevalence

KW - Sex Factors

KW - Smoking

KW - South Africa

KW - Young Adult

U2 - 10.1136/bmjopen-2014-006993

DO - 10.1136/bmjopen-2014-006993

M3 - SCORING: Journal article

C2 - 25783426

VL - 5

SP - Art. e006993

JO - BMJ OPEN

JF - BMJ OPEN

SN - 2044-6055

IS - 3

ER -