The purpose of this study is to determine whether benign whole body tumor volume of plexiform neurofibromas (PNs) is a risk factor for malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors (MPNST) in individuals with neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1). Thirty-one NF1 patients with MPNSTs and 62 age- and sex-matched NF1 patients without MPNSTs, who had undergone whole body magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were analyzed for benign whole body tumor volume. Mann-Whitney U test, Wilcoxon signed ranks test, Fisher's exact test (two-tailed), and logistic regression analysis were used for statistical analysis. Sixteen percent of all patients with MPNST did not have internal PN. The median whole body benign tumor volume in patients with PN was 352.0 mL among the MPNST group and 3.8 mL in the comparison group (p < 0.001). When the patients were stratified by age as younger or older than 30 years (median age of MPNST diagnosis), the median benign whole body tumor volume was 693.0 mL in MPNST patients and 0.0 mL in control patients younger than 30 years (p < 0.001). The mean number of PNs in MPNST patients was 2.8 (range 0-13, median 2.0) and 1.4 (range 0-13, median 1.0) in patients without MPNST (p = 0.001). The risk of MPNST development increased 0.2 % with each additional mL of benign PN volume (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 1.002, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.001-1.003, p = 0.005) and was higher in patients younger than 30 years (adjusted OR = 1.007, 95 % CI 1.002-1.012, p = 0.003). Higher numbers of PNs, larger whole body benign tumor volume, and younger age are important risk factors for MPNST. We identified a subgroup of patients with MPNST without internal PN on MRI and the lack of correlation of MPNST development with tumor burden in older patients. These findings may alter our belief that all MPNSTs arise from pre-existing PNs and suggest that surveillance MRI based on clinical suspicion may be warranted in older patients, respectively.
