A modified Wald interval for the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in diagnostic case-control studies
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A modified Wald interval for the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in diagnostic case-control studies. / Kottas, Martina; Kuss, Oliver; Zapf, Antonia.
In: BMC MED RES METHODOL, Vol. 14, 19.02.2014, p. 26.Research output: SCORING: Contribution to journal › SCORING: Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - A modified Wald interval for the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in diagnostic case-control studies
AU - Kottas, Martina
AU - Kuss, Oliver
AU - Zapf, Antonia
PY - 2014/2/19
Y1 - 2014/2/19
N2 - BACKGROUND: The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, referred to as the AUC, is an appropriate measure for describing the overall accuracy of a diagnostic test or a biomarker in early phase trials without having to choose a threshold. There are many approaches for estimating the confidence interval for the AUC. However, all are relatively complicated to implement. Furthermore, many approaches perform poorly for large AUC values or small sample sizes.METHODS: The AUC is actually a probability. So we propose a modified Wald interval for a single proportion, which can be calculated on a pocket calculator. We performed a simulation study to compare this modified Wald interval (without and with continuity correction) with other intervals regarding coverage probability and statistical power.RESULTS: The main result is that the proposed modified Wald intervals maintain and exploit the type I error much better than the intervals of Agresti-Coull, Wilson, and Clopper-Pearson. The interval suggested by Bamber, the Mann-Whitney interval without transformation and also the interval of the binormal AUC are very liberal. For small sample sizes the Wald interval with continuity has a comparable coverage probability as the LT interval and higher power. For large sample sizes the results of the LT interval and of the Wald interval without continuity correction are comparable.CONCLUSIONS: If individual patient data is not available, but only the estimated AUC and the total sample size, the modified Wald intervals can be recommended as confidence intervals for the AUC. For small sample sizes the continuity correction should be used.
AB - BACKGROUND: The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, referred to as the AUC, is an appropriate measure for describing the overall accuracy of a diagnostic test or a biomarker in early phase trials without having to choose a threshold. There are many approaches for estimating the confidence interval for the AUC. However, all are relatively complicated to implement. Furthermore, many approaches perform poorly for large AUC values or small sample sizes.METHODS: The AUC is actually a probability. So we propose a modified Wald interval for a single proportion, which can be calculated on a pocket calculator. We performed a simulation study to compare this modified Wald interval (without and with continuity correction) with other intervals regarding coverage probability and statistical power.RESULTS: The main result is that the proposed modified Wald intervals maintain and exploit the type I error much better than the intervals of Agresti-Coull, Wilson, and Clopper-Pearson. The interval suggested by Bamber, the Mann-Whitney interval without transformation and also the interval of the binormal AUC are very liberal. For small sample sizes the Wald interval with continuity has a comparable coverage probability as the LT interval and higher power. For large sample sizes the results of the LT interval and of the Wald interval without continuity correction are comparable.CONCLUSIONS: If individual patient data is not available, but only the estimated AUC and the total sample size, the modified Wald intervals can be recommended as confidence intervals for the AUC. For small sample sizes the continuity correction should be used.
KW - Area Under Curve
KW - Biomarkers
KW - Case-Control Studies
KW - Clinical Trials, Phase II as Topic
KW - Computer Simulation
KW - Confidence Intervals
KW - Diagnostic Tests, Routine
KW - Humans
KW - Models, Statistical
KW - ROC Curve
KW - Journal Article
U2 - 10.1186/1471-2288-14-26
DO - 10.1186/1471-2288-14-26
M3 - SCORING: Journal article
C2 - 24552686
VL - 14
SP - 26
JO - BMC MED RES METHODOL
JF - BMC MED RES METHODOL
SN - 1471-2288
ER -