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Simple risk model predicts incidence of atrial fibrillation in a racially and geographically diverse population: the CHARGE-AF consortium

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Simple risk model predicts incidence of atrial fibrillation in a racially and geographically diverse population: the CHARGE-AF consortium. / Alonso, Alvaro; Krijthe, Bouwe P; Aspelund, Thor; Stepas, Katherine A; Pencina, Michael J; Moser, Carlee B; Sinner, Moritz F; Sotoodehnia, Nona; Fontes, João D; Janssens, A Cecile J W; Kronmal, Richard A; Magnani, Jared W; Witteman, Jacqueline C; Chamberlain, Alanna M; Lubitz, Steven A; Schnabel, Renate B; Agarwal, Sunil K; McManus, David D; Ellinor, Patrick T; Larson, Martin G; Burke, Gregory L; Launer, Lenore J; Hofman, Albert; Levy, Daniel; Gottdiener, John S; Kääb, Stefan; Couper, David; Harris, Tamara B; Soliman, Elsayed Z; Stricker, Bruno H C; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Heckbert, Susan R; Benjamin, Emelia J.

in: J AM HEART ASSOC, Jahrgang 2, Nr. 2, 18.03.2013, S. e000102.

Publikationen: SCORING: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift/Zeitung › SCORING: Zeitschriftenaufsatz › Forschung › Begutachtung

Harvard

Alonso, A, Krijthe, BP, Aspelund, T, Stepas, KA, Pencina, MJ, Moser, CB, Sinner, MF, Sotoodehnia, N, Fontes, JD, Janssens, ACJW, Kronmal, RA, Magnani, JW, Witteman, JC, Chamberlain, AM, Lubitz, SA, Schnabel, RB, Agarwal, SK, McManus, DD, Ellinor, PT, Larson, MG, Burke, GL, Launer, LJ, Hofman, A, Levy, D, Gottdiener, JS, Kääb, S, Couper, D, Harris, TB, Soliman, EZ, Stricker, BHC, Gudnason, V, Heckbert, SR & Benjamin, EJ 2013, 'Simple risk model predicts incidence of atrial fibrillation in a racially and geographically diverse population: the CHARGE-AF consortium', J AM HEART ASSOC, Jg. 2, Nr. 2, S. e000102. https://doi.org/10.1161/JAHA.112.000102

APA

Alonso, A., Krijthe, B. P., Aspelund, T., Stepas, K. A., Pencina, M. J., Moser, C. B., Sinner, M. F., Sotoodehnia, N., Fontes, J. D., Janssens, A. C. J. W., Kronmal, R. A., Magnani, J. W., Witteman, J. C., Chamberlain, A. M., Lubitz, S. A., Schnabel, R. B., Agarwal, S. K., McManus, D. D., Ellinor, P. T., ... Benjamin, E. J. (2013). Simple risk model predicts incidence of atrial fibrillation in a racially and geographically diverse population: the CHARGE-AF consortium. J AM HEART ASSOC, 2(2), e000102. https://doi.org/10.1161/JAHA.112.000102

Vancouver

Alonso A, Krijthe BP, Aspelund T, Stepas KA, Pencina MJ, Moser CB et al. Simple risk model predicts incidence of atrial fibrillation in a racially and geographically diverse population: the CHARGE-AF consortium. J AM HEART ASSOC. 2013 Mär 18;2(2):e000102. https://doi.org/10.1161/JAHA.112.000102

Bibtex

@article{b9c782371be64b7c9610cb08f353886f,
title = "Simple risk model predicts incidence of atrial fibrillation in a racially and geographically diverse population: the CHARGE-AF consortium",
abstract = "BACKGROUND: Tools for the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) may identify high-risk individuals more likely to benefit from preventive interventions and serve as a benchmark to test novel putative risk factors.METHODS AND RESULTS: Individual-level data from 3 large cohorts in the United States (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] study, the Cardiovascular Health Study [CHS], and the Framingham Heart Study [FHS]), including 18 556 men and women aged 46 to 94 years (19% African Americans, 81% whites) were pooled to derive predictive models for AF using clinical variables. Validation of the derived models was performed in 7672 participants from the Age, Gene and Environment-Reykjavik study (AGES) and the Rotterdam Study (RS). The analysis included 1186 incident AF cases in the derivation cohorts and 585 in the validation cohorts. A simple 5-year predictive model including the variables age, race, height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, current smoking, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, and history of myocardial infarction and heart failure had good discrimination (C-statistic, 0.765; 95% CI, 0.748 to 0.781). Addition of variables from the electrocardiogram did not improve the overall model discrimination (C-statistic, 0.767; 95% CI, 0.750 to 0.783; categorical net reclassification improvement, -0.0032; 95% CI, -0.0178 to 0.0113). In the validation cohorts, discrimination was acceptable (AGES C-statistic, 0.664; 95% CI, 0.632 to 0.697 and RS C-statistic, 0.705; 95% CI, 0.664 to 0.747) and calibration was adequate.CONCLUSION: A risk model including variables readily available in primary care settings adequately predicted AF in diverse populations from the United States and Europe.",
keywords = "African Americans/statistics & numerical data, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Atrial Fibrillation/epidemiology, Cohort Studies, Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology, European Continental Ancestry Group/statistics & numerical data, Female, Heart Failure/epidemiology, Humans, Hypertension/epidemiology, Iceland/epidemiology, Incidence, Male, Middle Aged, Myocardial Infarction/epidemiology, Netherlands/epidemiology, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Assessment/methods, Smoking/epidemiology, United States/epidemiology",
author = "Alvaro Alonso and Krijthe, {Bouwe P} and Thor Aspelund and Stepas, {Katherine A} and Pencina, {Michael J} and Moser, {Carlee B} and Sinner, {Moritz F} and Nona Sotoodehnia and Fontes, {Jo{\~a}o D} and Janssens, {A Cecile J W} and Kronmal, {Richard A} and Magnani, {Jared W} and Witteman, {Jacqueline C} and Chamberlain, {Alanna M} and Lubitz, {Steven A} and Schnabel, {Renate B} and Agarwal, {Sunil K} and McManus, {David D} and Ellinor, {Patrick T} and Larson, {Martin G} and Burke, {Gregory L} and Launer, {Lenore J} and Albert Hofman and Daniel Levy and Gottdiener, {John S} and Stefan K{\"a}{\"a}b and David Couper and Harris, {Tamara B} and Soliman, {Elsayed Z} and Stricker, {Bruno H C} and Vilmundur Gudnason and Heckbert, {Susan R} and Benjamin, {Emelia J}",
year = "2013",
month = mar,
day = "18",
doi = "10.1161/JAHA.112.000102",
language = "English",
volume = "2",
pages = "e000102",
journal = "J AM HEART ASSOC",
issn = "2047-9980",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "2",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Simple risk model predicts incidence of atrial fibrillation in a racially and geographically diverse population: the CHARGE-AF consortium

AU - Alonso, Alvaro

AU - Krijthe, Bouwe P

AU - Aspelund, Thor

AU - Stepas, Katherine A

AU - Pencina, Michael J

AU - Moser, Carlee B

AU - Sinner, Moritz F

AU - Sotoodehnia, Nona

AU - Fontes, João D

AU - Janssens, A Cecile J W

AU - Kronmal, Richard A

AU - Magnani, Jared W

AU - Witteman, Jacqueline C

AU - Chamberlain, Alanna M

AU - Lubitz, Steven A

AU - Schnabel, Renate B

AU - Agarwal, Sunil K

AU - McManus, David D

AU - Ellinor, Patrick T

AU - Larson, Martin G

AU - Burke, Gregory L

AU - Launer, Lenore J

AU - Hofman, Albert

AU - Levy, Daniel

AU - Gottdiener, John S

AU - Kääb, Stefan

AU - Couper, David

AU - Harris, Tamara B

AU - Soliman, Elsayed Z

AU - Stricker, Bruno H C

AU - Gudnason, Vilmundur

AU - Heckbert, Susan R

AU - Benjamin, Emelia J

PY - 2013/3/18

Y1 - 2013/3/18

N2 - BACKGROUND: Tools for the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) may identify high-risk individuals more likely to benefit from preventive interventions and serve as a benchmark to test novel putative risk factors.METHODS AND RESULTS: Individual-level data from 3 large cohorts in the United States (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] study, the Cardiovascular Health Study [CHS], and the Framingham Heart Study [FHS]), including 18 556 men and women aged 46 to 94 years (19% African Americans, 81% whites) were pooled to derive predictive models for AF using clinical variables. Validation of the derived models was performed in 7672 participants from the Age, Gene and Environment-Reykjavik study (AGES) and the Rotterdam Study (RS). The analysis included 1186 incident AF cases in the derivation cohorts and 585 in the validation cohorts. A simple 5-year predictive model including the variables age, race, height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, current smoking, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, and history of myocardial infarction and heart failure had good discrimination (C-statistic, 0.765; 95% CI, 0.748 to 0.781). Addition of variables from the electrocardiogram did not improve the overall model discrimination (C-statistic, 0.767; 95% CI, 0.750 to 0.783; categorical net reclassification improvement, -0.0032; 95% CI, -0.0178 to 0.0113). In the validation cohorts, discrimination was acceptable (AGES C-statistic, 0.664; 95% CI, 0.632 to 0.697 and RS C-statistic, 0.705; 95% CI, 0.664 to 0.747) and calibration was adequate.CONCLUSION: A risk model including variables readily available in primary care settings adequately predicted AF in diverse populations from the United States and Europe.

AB - BACKGROUND: Tools for the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) may identify high-risk individuals more likely to benefit from preventive interventions and serve as a benchmark to test novel putative risk factors.METHODS AND RESULTS: Individual-level data from 3 large cohorts in the United States (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] study, the Cardiovascular Health Study [CHS], and the Framingham Heart Study [FHS]), including 18 556 men and women aged 46 to 94 years (19% African Americans, 81% whites) were pooled to derive predictive models for AF using clinical variables. Validation of the derived models was performed in 7672 participants from the Age, Gene and Environment-Reykjavik study (AGES) and the Rotterdam Study (RS). The analysis included 1186 incident AF cases in the derivation cohorts and 585 in the validation cohorts. A simple 5-year predictive model including the variables age, race, height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, current smoking, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, and history of myocardial infarction and heart failure had good discrimination (C-statistic, 0.765; 95% CI, 0.748 to 0.781). Addition of variables from the electrocardiogram did not improve the overall model discrimination (C-statistic, 0.767; 95% CI, 0.750 to 0.783; categorical net reclassification improvement, -0.0032; 95% CI, -0.0178 to 0.0113). In the validation cohorts, discrimination was acceptable (AGES C-statistic, 0.664; 95% CI, 0.632 to 0.697 and RS C-statistic, 0.705; 95% CI, 0.664 to 0.747) and calibration was adequate.CONCLUSION: A risk model including variables readily available in primary care settings adequately predicted AF in diverse populations from the United States and Europe.

KW - African Americans/statistics & numerical data

KW - Age Factors

KW - Aged

KW - Aged, 80 and over

KW - Atrial Fibrillation/epidemiology

KW - Cohort Studies

KW - Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology

KW - European Continental Ancestry Group/statistics & numerical data

KW - Female

KW - Heart Failure/epidemiology

KW - Humans

KW - Hypertension/epidemiology

KW - Iceland/epidemiology

KW - Incidence

KW - Male

KW - Middle Aged

KW - Myocardial Infarction/epidemiology

KW - Netherlands/epidemiology

KW - Proportional Hazards Models

KW - Risk Assessment/methods

KW - Smoking/epidemiology

KW - United States/epidemiology

U2 - 10.1161/JAHA.112.000102

DO - 10.1161/JAHA.112.000102

M3 - SCORING: Journal article

C2 - 23537808

VL - 2

SP - e000102

JO - J AM HEART ASSOC

JF - J AM HEART ASSOC

SN - 2047-9980

IS - 2

ER -