Predictors of incident heart failure in patients after an acute coronary syndrome: The LIPID heart failure risk-prediction model

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predictors of incident heart failure in patients after an acute coronary syndrome: The LIPID heart failure risk-prediction model

AU - Driscoll, Andrea

AU - Barnes, Elizabeth H

AU - Blankenberg, Stefan

AU - Colquhoun, David M

AU - Hunt, David

AU - Nestel, Paul J

AU - Stewart, Ralph A

AU - West, Malcolm J

AU - White, Harvey D

AU - Simes, John

AU - Tonkin, Andrew

N1 - Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

PY - 2017/12/1

Y1 - 2017/12/1

N2 - BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease is a major cause of heart failure. Availability of risk-prediction models that include both clinical parameters and biomarkers is limited. We aimed to develop such a model for prediction of incident heart failure.METHODS: A multivariable risk-factor model was developed for prediction of first occurrence of heart failure death or hospitalization. A simplified risk score was derived that enabled subjects to be grouped into categories of 5-year risk varying from <5% to >20%.RESULTS: Among 7101 patients from the LIPID study (84% male), with median age 61years (interquartile range 55-67years), 558 (8%) died or were hospitalized because of heart failure. Older age, history of claudication or diabetes mellitus, body mass index>30kg/m2, LDL-cholesterol >2.5mmol/L, heart rate>70 beats/min, white blood cell count, and the nature of the qualifying acute coronary syndrome (myocardial infarction or unstable angina) were associated with an increase in heart failure events. Coronary revascularization was associated with a lower event rate. Incident heart failure increased with higher concentrations of B-type natriuretic peptide >50ng/L, cystatin C>0.93nmol/L, D-dimer >273nmol/L, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein >4.8nmol/L, and sensitive troponin I>0.018μg/L. Addition of biomarkers to the clinical risk model improved the model's C statistic from 0.73 to 0.77. The net reclassification improvement incorporating biomarkers into the clinical model using categories of 5-year risk was 23%.CONCLUSION: Adding a multibiomarker panel to conventional parameters markedly improved discrimination and risk classification for future heart failure events.

AB - BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease is a major cause of heart failure. Availability of risk-prediction models that include both clinical parameters and biomarkers is limited. We aimed to develop such a model for prediction of incident heart failure.METHODS: A multivariable risk-factor model was developed for prediction of first occurrence of heart failure death or hospitalization. A simplified risk score was derived that enabled subjects to be grouped into categories of 5-year risk varying from <5% to >20%.RESULTS: Among 7101 patients from the LIPID study (84% male), with median age 61years (interquartile range 55-67years), 558 (8%) died or were hospitalized because of heart failure. Older age, history of claudication or diabetes mellitus, body mass index>30kg/m2, LDL-cholesterol >2.5mmol/L, heart rate>70 beats/min, white blood cell count, and the nature of the qualifying acute coronary syndrome (myocardial infarction or unstable angina) were associated with an increase in heart failure events. Coronary revascularization was associated with a lower event rate. Incident heart failure increased with higher concentrations of B-type natriuretic peptide >50ng/L, cystatin C>0.93nmol/L, D-dimer >273nmol/L, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein >4.8nmol/L, and sensitive troponin I>0.018μg/L. Addition of biomarkers to the clinical risk model improved the model's C statistic from 0.73 to 0.77. The net reclassification improvement incorporating biomarkers into the clinical model using categories of 5-year risk was 23%.CONCLUSION: Adding a multibiomarker panel to conventional parameters markedly improved discrimination and risk classification for future heart failure events.

KW - Acute Coronary Syndrome/blood

KW - Adult

KW - Aged

KW - Biomarkers/blood

KW - Female

KW - Heart Failure/blood

KW - Humans

KW - Incidence

KW - Male

KW - Middle Aged

KW - Predictive Value of Tests

KW - Prospective Studies

KW - Random Allocation

KW - Risk Factors

U2 - 10.1016/j.ijcard.2017.06.098

DO - 10.1016/j.ijcard.2017.06.098

M3 - SCORING: Journal article

C2 - 28728851

VL - 248

SP - 361

EP - 368

JO - INT J CARDIOL

JF - INT J CARDIOL

SN - 0167-5273

ER -