Predicting recurrent atrial fibrillation after catheter ablation: a systematic review of prognostic models
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Predicting recurrent atrial fibrillation after catheter ablation: a systematic review of prognostic models. / Dretzke, Janine; Chuchu, Naomi; Agarwal, Ridhi; Herd, Clare; Chua, Winnie; Fabritz, Larissa; Bayliss, Susan; Kotecha, Dipak; Deeks, Jonathan J; Kirchhof, Paulus; Takwoingi, Yemisi.
in: EUROPACE, Jahrgang 22, Nr. 5, 01.05.2020, S. 748-760.Publikationen: SCORING: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift/Zeitung › SCORING: Review › Forschung
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Predicting recurrent atrial fibrillation after catheter ablation: a systematic review of prognostic models
AU - Dretzke, Janine
AU - Chuchu, Naomi
AU - Agarwal, Ridhi
AU - Herd, Clare
AU - Chua, Winnie
AU - Fabritz, Larissa
AU - Bayliss, Susan
AU - Kotecha, Dipak
AU - Deeks, Jonathan J
AU - Kirchhof, Paulus
AU - Takwoingi, Yemisi
N1 - © The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.
PY - 2020/5/1
Y1 - 2020/5/1
N2 - AIMS: We assessed the performance of modelsf (risk scores) for predicting recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients who have undergone catheter ablation.METHODS AND RESULTS: Systematic searches of bibliographic databases were conducted (November 2018). Studies were eligible for inclusion if they reported the development, validation, or impact assessment of a model for predicting AF recurrence after ablation. Model performance (discrimination and calibration) measures were extracted. The Prediction Study Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was used to assess risk of bias. Meta-analysis was not feasible due to clinical and methodological differences between studies, but c-statistics were presented in forest plots. Thirty-three studies developing or validating 13 models were included; eight studies compared two or more models. Common model variables were left atrial parameters, type of AF, and age. Model discriminatory ability was highly variable and no model had consistently poor or good performance. Most studies did not assess model calibration. The main risk of bias concern was the lack of internal validation which may have resulted in overly optimistic and/or biased model performance estimates. No model impact studies were identified.CONCLUSION: Our systematic review suggests that clinical risk prediction of AF after ablation has potential, but there remains a need for robust evaluation of risk factors and development of risk scores.
AB - AIMS: We assessed the performance of modelsf (risk scores) for predicting recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients who have undergone catheter ablation.METHODS AND RESULTS: Systematic searches of bibliographic databases were conducted (November 2018). Studies were eligible for inclusion if they reported the development, validation, or impact assessment of a model for predicting AF recurrence after ablation. Model performance (discrimination and calibration) measures were extracted. The Prediction Study Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was used to assess risk of bias. Meta-analysis was not feasible due to clinical and methodological differences between studies, but c-statistics were presented in forest plots. Thirty-three studies developing or validating 13 models were included; eight studies compared two or more models. Common model variables were left atrial parameters, type of AF, and age. Model discriminatory ability was highly variable and no model had consistently poor or good performance. Most studies did not assess model calibration. The main risk of bias concern was the lack of internal validation which may have resulted in overly optimistic and/or biased model performance estimates. No model impact studies were identified.CONCLUSION: Our systematic review suggests that clinical risk prediction of AF after ablation has potential, but there remains a need for robust evaluation of risk factors and development of risk scores.
KW - Atrial Fibrillation/diagnosis
KW - Catheter Ablation/adverse effects
KW - Heart Atria
KW - Humans
KW - Prognosis
KW - Recurrence
KW - Risk Factors
KW - Treatment Outcome
U2 - 10.1093/europace/euaa041
DO - 10.1093/europace/euaa041
M3 - SCORING: Review article
C2 - 32227238
VL - 22
SP - 748
EP - 760
JO - EUROPACE
JF - EUROPACE
SN - 1099-5129
IS - 5
ER -