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Expected lifetime numbers and costs of fractures in postmenopausal women with and without osteoporosis in Germany: a discrete event simulation model

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Expected lifetime numbers and costs of fractures in postmenopausal women with and without osteoporosis in Germany: a discrete event simulation model. / Bleibler, Florian; Rapp, Kilian; Jaensch, Andrea; Becker, Clemens; König, Hans-Helmut.

in: BMC HEALTH SERV RES, Jahrgang 14, Nr. 284, 01.01.2014.

Publikationen: SCORING: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift/Zeitung › SCORING: Zeitschriftenaufsatz › Forschung › Begutachtung

Harvard

Bleibler, F, Rapp, K, Jaensch, A, Becker, C & König, H-H 2014, 'Expected lifetime numbers and costs of fractures in postmenopausal women with and without osteoporosis in Germany: a discrete event simulation model', BMC HEALTH SERV RES, Jg. 14, Nr. 284. https://doi.org/10.1186/1472-6963-14-284

APA

Bleibler, F., Rapp, K., Jaensch, A., Becker, C., & König, H-H. (2014). Expected lifetime numbers and costs of fractures in postmenopausal women with and without osteoporosis in Germany: a discrete event simulation model. BMC HEALTH SERV RES, 14(284). https://doi.org/10.1186/1472-6963-14-284

Vancouver

Bleibler F, Rapp K, Jaensch A, Becker C, König H-H. Expected lifetime numbers and costs of fractures in postmenopausal women with and without osteoporosis in Germany: a discrete event simulation model. BMC HEALTH SERV RES. 2014 Jan 1;14(284). https://doi.org/10.1186/1472-6963-14-284

Bibtex

@article{1788bea99c7f42079feed8744121ab88,
title = "Expected lifetime numbers and costs of fractures in postmenopausal women with and without osteoporosis in Germany: a discrete event simulation model",
abstract = "BACKGROUND: Osteoporotic fractures cause a large health burden and substantial costs. This study estimated the expected fracture numbers and costs for the remaining lifetime of postmenopausal women in Germany.METHODS: A discrete event simulation (DES) model which tracks changes in fracture risk due to osteoporosis, a previous fracture or institutionalization in a nursing home was developed. Expected lifetime fracture numbers and costs per capita were estimated for postmenopausal women (aged 50 and older) at average osteoporosis risk (AOR) and for those never suffering from osteoporosis. Direct and indirect costs were modeled. Deterministic univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.RESULTS: The expected fracture numbers over the remaining lifetime of a 50 year old woman with AOR for each fracture type (% attributable to osteoporosis) were: hip 0.282 (57.9%), wrist 0.229 (18.2%), clinical vertebral 0.206 (39.2%), humerus 0.147 (43.5%), pelvis 0.105 (47.5%), and other femur 0.033 (52.1%). Expected discounted fracture lifetime costs (excess cost attributable to osteoporosis) per 50 year old woman with AOR amounted to € 4,479 (€ 1,995). Most costs were accrued in the hospital € 1,743 (€ 751) and long-term care sectors € 1,210 (€ 620). Univariate sensitivity analysis resulted in percentage changes between -48.4% (if fracture rates decreased by 2% per year) and +83.5% (if fracture rates increased by 2% per year) compared to base case excess costs. Costs for women with osteoporosis were about 3.3 times of those never getting osteoporosis (€ 7,463 vs. € 2,247), and were markedly increased for women with a previous fracture.CONCLUSION: The results of this study indicate that osteoporosis causes a substantial share of fracture costs in postmenopausal women, which strongly increase with age and previous fractures.",
keywords = "Aged, Cost of Illness, Female, Fractures, Bone, Germany, Humans, Middle Aged, Osteoporosis, Postmenopausal, Probability, Risk Factors",
author = "Florian Bleibler and Kilian Rapp and Andrea Jaensch and Clemens Becker and Hans-Helmut K{\"o}nig",
year = "2014",
month = jan,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1186/1472-6963-14-284",
language = "English",
volume = "14",
journal = "BMC HEALTH SERV RES",
issn = "1472-6963",
publisher = "BioMed Central Ltd.",
number = "284",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Expected lifetime numbers and costs of fractures in postmenopausal women with and without osteoporosis in Germany: a discrete event simulation model

AU - Bleibler, Florian

AU - Rapp, Kilian

AU - Jaensch, Andrea

AU - Becker, Clemens

AU - König, Hans-Helmut

PY - 2014/1/1

Y1 - 2014/1/1

N2 - BACKGROUND: Osteoporotic fractures cause a large health burden and substantial costs. This study estimated the expected fracture numbers and costs for the remaining lifetime of postmenopausal women in Germany.METHODS: A discrete event simulation (DES) model which tracks changes in fracture risk due to osteoporosis, a previous fracture or institutionalization in a nursing home was developed. Expected lifetime fracture numbers and costs per capita were estimated for postmenopausal women (aged 50 and older) at average osteoporosis risk (AOR) and for those never suffering from osteoporosis. Direct and indirect costs were modeled. Deterministic univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.RESULTS: The expected fracture numbers over the remaining lifetime of a 50 year old woman with AOR for each fracture type (% attributable to osteoporosis) were: hip 0.282 (57.9%), wrist 0.229 (18.2%), clinical vertebral 0.206 (39.2%), humerus 0.147 (43.5%), pelvis 0.105 (47.5%), and other femur 0.033 (52.1%). Expected discounted fracture lifetime costs (excess cost attributable to osteoporosis) per 50 year old woman with AOR amounted to € 4,479 (€ 1,995). Most costs were accrued in the hospital € 1,743 (€ 751) and long-term care sectors € 1,210 (€ 620). Univariate sensitivity analysis resulted in percentage changes between -48.4% (if fracture rates decreased by 2% per year) and +83.5% (if fracture rates increased by 2% per year) compared to base case excess costs. Costs for women with osteoporosis were about 3.3 times of those never getting osteoporosis (€ 7,463 vs. € 2,247), and were markedly increased for women with a previous fracture.CONCLUSION: The results of this study indicate that osteoporosis causes a substantial share of fracture costs in postmenopausal women, which strongly increase with age and previous fractures.

AB - BACKGROUND: Osteoporotic fractures cause a large health burden and substantial costs. This study estimated the expected fracture numbers and costs for the remaining lifetime of postmenopausal women in Germany.METHODS: A discrete event simulation (DES) model which tracks changes in fracture risk due to osteoporosis, a previous fracture or institutionalization in a nursing home was developed. Expected lifetime fracture numbers and costs per capita were estimated for postmenopausal women (aged 50 and older) at average osteoporosis risk (AOR) and for those never suffering from osteoporosis. Direct and indirect costs were modeled. Deterministic univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.RESULTS: The expected fracture numbers over the remaining lifetime of a 50 year old woman with AOR for each fracture type (% attributable to osteoporosis) were: hip 0.282 (57.9%), wrist 0.229 (18.2%), clinical vertebral 0.206 (39.2%), humerus 0.147 (43.5%), pelvis 0.105 (47.5%), and other femur 0.033 (52.1%). Expected discounted fracture lifetime costs (excess cost attributable to osteoporosis) per 50 year old woman with AOR amounted to € 4,479 (€ 1,995). Most costs were accrued in the hospital € 1,743 (€ 751) and long-term care sectors € 1,210 (€ 620). Univariate sensitivity analysis resulted in percentage changes between -48.4% (if fracture rates decreased by 2% per year) and +83.5% (if fracture rates increased by 2% per year) compared to base case excess costs. Costs for women with osteoporosis were about 3.3 times of those never getting osteoporosis (€ 7,463 vs. € 2,247), and were markedly increased for women with a previous fracture.CONCLUSION: The results of this study indicate that osteoporosis causes a substantial share of fracture costs in postmenopausal women, which strongly increase with age and previous fractures.

KW - Aged

KW - Cost of Illness

KW - Female

KW - Fractures, Bone

KW - Germany

KW - Humans

KW - Middle Aged

KW - Osteoporosis, Postmenopausal

KW - Probability

KW - Risk Factors

U2 - 10.1186/1472-6963-14-284

DO - 10.1186/1472-6963-14-284

M3 - SCORING: Journal article

C2 - 24981316

VL - 14

JO - BMC HEALTH SERV RES

JF - BMC HEALTH SERV RES

SN - 1472-6963

IS - 284

ER -