Disease-free survival as a surrogate for overall survival in upper tract urothelial carcinoma
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Disease-free survival as a surrogate for overall survival in upper tract urothelial carcinoma. / Fajkovic, Harun; Cha, Eugene K; Xylinas, Evanguelos; Rink, Michael; Pycha, Armin; Seitz, Christian; Bolenz, Christian; Dunning, Allison; Novara, Giacomo; Trinh, Quoc-Dien; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Margulis, Vitaly; Raman, Jay D; Walton, Thomas J; Baba, Shiro; Carballido, Joaquin; Otto, Wolfgang; Montorsi, Francesco; Lotan, Yair; Kassouf, Wassim; Fritsche, Hans-Martin; Bensalah, Karim; Zigeuner, Richard; Scherr, Douglas S; Sonpavde, Guru; Roupret, Morgan; Shariat, Shahrokh F.
in: WORLD J UROL, Jahrgang 31, Nr. 1, 01.02.2013, S. 5-11.Publikationen: SCORING: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift/Zeitung › SCORING: Zeitschriftenaufsatz › Forschung › Begutachtung
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Disease-free survival as a surrogate for overall survival in upper tract urothelial carcinoma
AU - Fajkovic, Harun
AU - Cha, Eugene K
AU - Xylinas, Evanguelos
AU - Rink, Michael
AU - Pycha, Armin
AU - Seitz, Christian
AU - Bolenz, Christian
AU - Dunning, Allison
AU - Novara, Giacomo
AU - Trinh, Quoc-Dien
AU - Karakiewicz, Pierre I
AU - Margulis, Vitaly
AU - Raman, Jay D
AU - Walton, Thomas J
AU - Baba, Shiro
AU - Carballido, Joaquin
AU - Otto, Wolfgang
AU - Montorsi, Francesco
AU - Lotan, Yair
AU - Kassouf, Wassim
AU - Fritsche, Hans-Martin
AU - Bensalah, Karim
AU - Zigeuner, Richard
AU - Scherr, Douglas S
AU - Sonpavde, Guru
AU - Roupret, Morgan
AU - Shariat, Shahrokh F
PY - 2013/2/1
Y1 - 2013/2/1
N2 - OBJECTIVES: The primary endpoint in trials of perioperative systemic therapy for urothelial carcinoma is 5-year overall survival (OS). A shorter-term endpoint could significantly speed the translation of advances into practice. We hypothesized that disease-free survival (DFS) could be a surrogate endpoint for OS in upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) patients treated with radical nephroureterectomy (RNU).PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study included 2,492 patients treated with RNU with curative intent for UTUC.RESULTS: 2/3-year DFS estimates were 78/73 %, and the 5-year OS estimate was 64 %. The overall agreements between 2- and 3-year DFS with 5-year OS were 85 and 87 %, respectively. Agreements were similar when analyzed in subgroups stratified by pathological stages, lymph node status, and adjuvant chemotherapy. The kappa statistic was 0.59 (95 % CI 0.55-0.63) for 2-year DFS/5-year OS and 0.64 (95 % CI 0.61-0.68) for 3-year DFS/5-year OS, indicating moderate reliability. The hazard ratio for DFS as a time-dependent variable for predicting OS was 11.5 (95 % CI 9.1-14.4), indicating a strong relationship between DFS and OS.CONCLUSIONS: In patients treated with RNU for UTUC, DFS and OS are highly correlated, regardless of tumor stage and adjuvant chemotherapy. While significant differences in DFS, assessed at 2 and 3 years, are highly likely to persist in OS at 5 years, marginal DFS advantages may not translate into OS benefit. External validation is necessary before accepting DFS as an appropriate surrogate endpoint for clinical trials investigating advanced UTUC patients.
AB - OBJECTIVES: The primary endpoint in trials of perioperative systemic therapy for urothelial carcinoma is 5-year overall survival (OS). A shorter-term endpoint could significantly speed the translation of advances into practice. We hypothesized that disease-free survival (DFS) could be a surrogate endpoint for OS in upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) patients treated with radical nephroureterectomy (RNU).PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study included 2,492 patients treated with RNU with curative intent for UTUC.RESULTS: 2/3-year DFS estimates were 78/73 %, and the 5-year OS estimate was 64 %. The overall agreements between 2- and 3-year DFS with 5-year OS were 85 and 87 %, respectively. Agreements were similar when analyzed in subgroups stratified by pathological stages, lymph node status, and adjuvant chemotherapy. The kappa statistic was 0.59 (95 % CI 0.55-0.63) for 2-year DFS/5-year OS and 0.64 (95 % CI 0.61-0.68) for 3-year DFS/5-year OS, indicating moderate reliability. The hazard ratio for DFS as a time-dependent variable for predicting OS was 11.5 (95 % CI 9.1-14.4), indicating a strong relationship between DFS and OS.CONCLUSIONS: In patients treated with RNU for UTUC, DFS and OS are highly correlated, regardless of tumor stage and adjuvant chemotherapy. While significant differences in DFS, assessed at 2 and 3 years, are highly likely to persist in OS at 5 years, marginal DFS advantages may not translate into OS benefit. External validation is necessary before accepting DFS as an appropriate surrogate endpoint for clinical trials investigating advanced UTUC patients.
KW - Adult
KW - Aged
KW - Aged, 80 and over
KW - Carcinoma, Transitional Cell
KW - Disease-Free Survival
KW - Female
KW - Humans
KW - Kidney Neoplasms
KW - Kidney Pelvis
KW - Male
KW - Middle Aged
KW - Nephrectomy
KW - Retrospective Studies
KW - Survival Analysis
KW - Time Factors
KW - Treatment Outcome
KW - Ureter
KW - Ureteral Neoplasms
U2 - 10.1007/s00345-012-0939-5
DO - 10.1007/s00345-012-0939-5
M3 - SCORING: Journal article
C2 - 23011256
VL - 31
SP - 5
EP - 11
JO - WORLD J UROL
JF - WORLD J UROL
SN - 0724-4983
IS - 1
ER -