Development and external validation of nomograms predicting disease-free and cancer-specific survival after radical cystectomy
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Development and external validation of nomograms predicting disease-free and cancer-specific survival after radical cystectomy. / Simone, Giuseppe; Bianchi, Marco; Giannarelli, Diana; Daneshmand, Siamak; Papalia, Rocco; Ferriero, Mariaconsiglia; Guaglianone, Salvatore; Sentinelli, Steno; Colombo, Renzo; Montorsi, Francesco; Collura, Devis; Muto, Giovanni; Novara, Giacomo; Hurle, Rodolfo; Rink, Michael; Fisch, Margit; Abol-Enein, Hassan; Miranda, Gus; Desai, Mihir; Gill, Inderbir; Gallucci, Michele.
in: WORLD J UROL, Jahrgang 33, Nr. 10, 10.2015, S. 1419-1428.Publikationen: SCORING: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift/Zeitung › SCORING: Zeitschriftenaufsatz › Forschung › Begutachtung
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T1 - Development and external validation of nomograms predicting disease-free and cancer-specific survival after radical cystectomy
AU - Simone, Giuseppe
AU - Bianchi, Marco
AU - Giannarelli, Diana
AU - Daneshmand, Siamak
AU - Papalia, Rocco
AU - Ferriero, Mariaconsiglia
AU - Guaglianone, Salvatore
AU - Sentinelli, Steno
AU - Colombo, Renzo
AU - Montorsi, Francesco
AU - Collura, Devis
AU - Muto, Giovanni
AU - Novara, Giacomo
AU - Hurle, Rodolfo
AU - Rink, Michael
AU - Fisch, Margit
AU - Abol-Enein, Hassan
AU - Miranda, Gus
AU - Desai, Mihir
AU - Gill, Inderbir
AU - Gallucci, Michele
PY - 2015/10
Y1 - 2015/10
N2 - PURPOSE: To develop two nomograms predicting disease-free survival (DFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) and to externally validate them in multiple series.METHODS: Prospectively collected data from a single-centre series of 818 consecutive patients who underwent RC and PLND were used to build the nomogram. External validation was performed in 3,173 patients from 7 centres worldwide. Time to recurrence and to cancer-specific death were addressed with univariable and multivariable analyses. Nomograms were built to predict 2-, 5- and 8-year DFS and CSS probabilities. Predictive accuracy was quantified using the concordance index.RESULTS: Age, pathologic T stage, lymph-node density and extent of PLND were independent predictors of DFS and CSS (p < 0.05). Discrimination accuracies for DFS and CSS at 2, 5 and 8 years were 0.81, 0.8, 0.79 and 0.82, 0.81, 0.8, respectively, with a slight overestimation at calibration plots beyond 24 months. In the external series, predictive accuracies for DFS and CSS at 2, 5 and 8 years were 0.83, 0.82, 0.82 and 0.85, 0.85, 0.83 for European centres; 0.73, 0.72, 0.71 and 0.80, 0.74, 0.68 for African series; 0.76, 0.74, 0.71 and 0.79, 0.76, 0.73 for American series.CONCLUSIONS: These nomograms developed from a contemporary series are simple clinical tools and provide optimal oncologic outcome prediction in all external cohorts.
AB - PURPOSE: To develop two nomograms predicting disease-free survival (DFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) and to externally validate them in multiple series.METHODS: Prospectively collected data from a single-centre series of 818 consecutive patients who underwent RC and PLND were used to build the nomogram. External validation was performed in 3,173 patients from 7 centres worldwide. Time to recurrence and to cancer-specific death were addressed with univariable and multivariable analyses. Nomograms were built to predict 2-, 5- and 8-year DFS and CSS probabilities. Predictive accuracy was quantified using the concordance index.RESULTS: Age, pathologic T stage, lymph-node density and extent of PLND were independent predictors of DFS and CSS (p < 0.05). Discrimination accuracies for DFS and CSS at 2, 5 and 8 years were 0.81, 0.8, 0.79 and 0.82, 0.81, 0.8, respectively, with a slight overestimation at calibration plots beyond 24 months. In the external series, predictive accuracies for DFS and CSS at 2, 5 and 8 years were 0.83, 0.82, 0.82 and 0.85, 0.85, 0.83 for European centres; 0.73, 0.72, 0.71 and 0.80, 0.74, 0.68 for African series; 0.76, 0.74, 0.71 and 0.79, 0.76, 0.73 for American series.CONCLUSIONS: These nomograms developed from a contemporary series are simple clinical tools and provide optimal oncologic outcome prediction in all external cohorts.
U2 - 10.1007/s00345-014-1465-4
DO - 10.1007/s00345-014-1465-4
M3 - SCORING: Journal article
C2 - 25542395
VL - 33
SP - 1419
EP - 1428
JO - WORLD J UROL
JF - WORLD J UROL
SN - 0724-4983
IS - 10
ER -