Clinical stage and grade migration of localized prostate cancer at diagnosis during the past decade

OBJECTIVES: Early 2010s data suggest a reverse stage and grade migration towards more aggressive prostate cancer (PCa) at diagnosis, accelerated by the 2012 US Preventive Services Task Force recommendation against PSA screening. Using the National Cancer Database, we investigated the impact of the 2018 USPSTF recommendation and the COVID-19 outbreak on this shift. We hypothesized that the COVID-19 outbreak would further contribute to a stage and grade migration towards more aggressive disease.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: We identified men with localized PCa diagnosed between 2010 and 2020. We analyzed the shift in the proportion of PCa stratified according to D'Amico risk classification. We used multivariable logistic regression models to assess the association between year of diagnosis and dichotomous variables related to clinical stage and grade of PCa. Predicted probabilities with 95% CI were computed through marginal effect analyses.

RESULTS: We identified 910,898 men with localized PCa. The proportion of low-risk PCa almost halved from 34.9% in 2010 to 17.7% in 2020 (P < 0.001). Compared to 2010, we found in each year increased odds of: PSA≥10 ng/dL starting from 2012 (aOR2012 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.08); cT3-T4 starting from 2015 (aOR2015 1.10; 95% CI, 1.03-1.17); ISUP GG 3-5 starting from 2011 (aOR2011 1.06; 95% CI, 1.03-1.08); and consequently, D'Amico intermediate/high-risk class starting from 2011 (aOR2011 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.05). Fluctuations in the probabilities of PSA≥10 ng/dL and cT3-T4 at diagnosis were observed over time (all P < 0.001). The probability of PSA≥10 ng/dL peaked at 29.0% (95% CI, 28.0%-29.0%) in 2018, while the probability of cT3-T4 peaked at 3.7% (95% CI, 3.6%-3.8%) in 2020. All other outcome variables demonstrated a consistent upward shift (all P < 0.001), with the highest probabilities in 2020 for ISUP GG 3-5 (42.3%, 95% CI, 41.9%-42.6%) and D'Amico intermediate/high-risk (81.3%, 95% CI, 81.0%-81.6%).

CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirms an enduring shift towards a higher proportion of aggressive PCa at diagnosis, likely influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of the 2018 USPSTF PCa screening recommendation on the proportion of aggressive PCa seems restricted and likely affected by the pandemic outbreak. Future investigations should evaluate the long-term effects of the 2018 USPSTF recommendations in the postpandemic setting.