A pre-specified model based on four kallikrein markers in blood improves predictions of adverse pathology and biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy

BACKGROUND: A pre-specified model based on four kallikrein markers in blood, commercially available as 4Kscore, predicts Gleason Grade (GG) 3 + 4 or higher prostate cancer on biopsy. However, sampling error and variation in pathology reporting may miss aggressive disease.

METHODS: The 4Kscore was measured in cryopreserved blood from 2330 men obtained before prostatectomy at a single institution between 2002 and 2010. Adverse surgical pathology and biochemical recurrence (BCR) were pre-specified to be assessed in all men, biopsy GG 3 + 3, and 3 + 4.

RESULTS: Adjusted for established clinical predictors, the 4Kscore was significantly associated with adverse pathology (OR 1.49; 95% CI 1.32, 1.67; p < 0.0001). Adding 4Kscore increased discrimination from (AUC) 0.672 to 0.718 and 0.644 to 0.659 within biopsy GG 3 + 3 and 3 + 4, respectively. Higher 4Kscore was associated with higher risk of BCR (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.06, 1.26; p = 0.001). Adding 4Kscore improved the prediction of BCR (C-index 0.630-0.660) within GG 3 + 3, but not GG 3 + 4.

CONCLUSIONS: The 4Kscore can help guide the clinical decision whether additional risk assessment-such as confirmatory biopsy-is needed to decide between active surveillance versus curative therapy. Evidence that the panel could influence management in biopsy GG 3 + 4 is less strong and requires further investigation.