Predicting lung cancer deaths from smoking prevalence data

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predicting lung cancer deaths from smoking prevalence data

AU - Winkler, Volker

AU - Ng, Nawi

AU - Tesfaye, Fikru

AU - Becher, Heiko

N1 - Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

PY - 2011/11/1

Y1 - 2011/11/1

N2 - Reliable data on lung cancer burden is not available from most developing countries as cancer registration is lacking. In a previously proposed model to estimate lung cancer deaths in those countries using smoking prevalence data, we estimated the current yearly number of lung cancer deaths in Ethiopia as 3356, a figure far above the WHO estimate of 1343 and the GLOBOCAN of 748. Our aim was to further develop and validate our estimation procedure. We included additional data on risk estimates for lung cancer mortality of ex-smokers and an approximation of duration of smoking into our model and reanalysed study results on non-smoker mortality, thus building two improved models. For validation the number of lung cancer deaths in Germany (2006), the UK (2006), Canada (2004), and Utah, USA (2000) were estimated based on all three models and compared to the observed number of deaths in these countries. We found that the refined model with a modified estimate of lung cancer mortality rates in non-smokers and a more detailed incorporation of smoking dose categories estimates rather well the observed lung cancer deaths in the above countries. With this model, the updated estimate of yearly lung cancer deaths in Ethiopia is 2946 deaths, close to the previous reported estimate. If Ethiopian lung cancer mortality rates in never-smokers and smoking relative risks are the same as in industrialised countries, our models suggests that WHO lung cancer deaths may be underestimated in Ethiopia.

AB - Reliable data on lung cancer burden is not available from most developing countries as cancer registration is lacking. In a previously proposed model to estimate lung cancer deaths in those countries using smoking prevalence data, we estimated the current yearly number of lung cancer deaths in Ethiopia as 3356, a figure far above the WHO estimate of 1343 and the GLOBOCAN of 748. Our aim was to further develop and validate our estimation procedure. We included additional data on risk estimates for lung cancer mortality of ex-smokers and an approximation of duration of smoking into our model and reanalysed study results on non-smoker mortality, thus building two improved models. For validation the number of lung cancer deaths in Germany (2006), the UK (2006), Canada (2004), and Utah, USA (2000) were estimated based on all three models and compared to the observed number of deaths in these countries. We found that the refined model with a modified estimate of lung cancer mortality rates in non-smokers and a more detailed incorporation of smoking dose categories estimates rather well the observed lung cancer deaths in the above countries. With this model, the updated estimate of yearly lung cancer deaths in Ethiopia is 2946 deaths, close to the previous reported estimate. If Ethiopian lung cancer mortality rates in never-smokers and smoking relative risks are the same as in industrialised countries, our models suggests that WHO lung cancer deaths may be underestimated in Ethiopia.

KW - Adult

KW - Aged

KW - Aged, 80 and over

KW - Canada

KW - Ethiopia

KW - Female

KW - Germany

KW - Great Britain

KW - Humans

KW - Lung Neoplasms

KW - Male

KW - Middle Aged

KW - Models, Statistical

KW - Prevalence

KW - Risk Assessment

KW - Risk Factors

KW - Smoking

KW - Survival Analysis

KW - United States

KW - World Health Organization

U2 - 10.1016/j.lungcan.2011.02.011

DO - 10.1016/j.lungcan.2011.02.011

M3 - SCORING: Journal article

C2 - 21420756

VL - 74

SP - 170

EP - 177

JO - LUNG CANCER

JF - LUNG CANCER

SN - 0169-5002

IS - 2

ER -