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Development and validation of a new statistical model for prognosis of long-term graft function after pediatric kidney transplantation

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Development and validation of a new statistical model for prognosis of long-term graft function after pediatric kidney transplantation. / Pape, Lars; Ahlenstiel, Thurid; Werner, Christin D; Zapf, Antonia.

In: PEDIATR NEPHROL, Vol. 28, No. 3, 03.2013, p. 499-505.

Research output: SCORING: Contribution to journal › SCORING: Journal article › Research › peer-review

Harvard

Pape, L, Ahlenstiel, T, Werner, CD & Zapf, A 2013, 'Development and validation of a new statistical model for prognosis of long-term graft function after pediatric kidney transplantation', PEDIATR NEPHROL, vol. 28, no. 3, pp. 499-505. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00467-012-2346-y

APA

Pape, L., Ahlenstiel, T., Werner, C. D., & Zapf, A. (2013). Development and validation of a new statistical model for prognosis of long-term graft function after pediatric kidney transplantation. PEDIATR NEPHROL, 28(3), 499-505. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00467-012-2346-y

Vancouver

Pape L, Ahlenstiel T, Werner CD, Zapf A. Development and validation of a new statistical model for prognosis of long-term graft function after pediatric kidney transplantation. PEDIATR NEPHROL. 2013 Mar;28(3):499-505. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00467-012-2346-y

Bibtex

@article{f6bead0d67a14824b880d4ca6cb8c2a5,
title = "Development and validation of a new statistical model for prognosis of long-term graft function after pediatric kidney transplantation",
abstract = "BACKGROUND: No adequate statistical model has been established to estimate future glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in children after kidney transplantation (KTX). Equations based on simple linear regression analysis as used in adults are not established in children.METHODS: An optimal prognostic model of GFR was generated for 63 children at 3-7 years after KTX. The main regression model for prediction of the log-transformed GFR (logGFR) included the mean monthly change of GFR in the period 3-24 months after KTX (∆GFR), the baseline GFR at 3 months (bGFR), and an intercept. Additionally, we investigated if the inclusion of cofactors leads to more precise predictions. The model was validated by leave-one-out cross-validation for years 3-7 after KTX. Prognostic quality was determined with the mean squared error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). Results were compared with the simple linear regression model used in adults.RESULTS: The following statistical model was calculated for every prognosis year (i = 3, …, 7):[Formula: see text] [Formula: see text] Comparison of the new statistical model and the simple linear model for adults led to relevantly lower MSEs and MAEs for the new model (year 7: New model: MSE 0.1, MAE 0.3/adult model: MSE 1069, MAE 18). The benefit of inclusion of cofactors was not relevant.CONCLUSIONS: This statistical model is able to predict long-term graft function in children with very high precision.",
keywords = "Adult, Age Factors, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Glomerular Filtration Rate, Graft Survival, Humans, Kidney, Kidney Transplantation, Linear Models, Male, Models, Statistical, Predictive Value of Tests, Reproducibility of Results, Retrospective Studies, Time Factors, Treatment Outcome, Comparative Study, Journal Article, Validation Studies",
author = "Lars Pape and Thurid Ahlenstiel and Werner, {Christin D} and Antonia Zapf",
year = "2013",
month = mar,
doi = "10.1007/s00467-012-2346-y",
language = "English",
volume = "28",
pages = "499--505",
journal = "PEDIATR NEPHROL",
issn = "0931-041X",
publisher = "Springer",
number = "3",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Development and validation of a new statistical model for prognosis of long-term graft function after pediatric kidney transplantation

AU - Pape, Lars

AU - Ahlenstiel, Thurid

AU - Werner, Christin D

AU - Zapf, Antonia

PY - 2013/3

Y1 - 2013/3

N2 - BACKGROUND: No adequate statistical model has been established to estimate future glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in children after kidney transplantation (KTX). Equations based on simple linear regression analysis as used in adults are not established in children.METHODS: An optimal prognostic model of GFR was generated for 63 children at 3-7 years after KTX. The main regression model for prediction of the log-transformed GFR (logGFR) included the mean monthly change of GFR in the period 3-24 months after KTX (∆GFR), the baseline GFR at 3 months (bGFR), and an intercept. Additionally, we investigated if the inclusion of cofactors leads to more precise predictions. The model was validated by leave-one-out cross-validation for years 3-7 after KTX. Prognostic quality was determined with the mean squared error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). Results were compared with the simple linear regression model used in adults.RESULTS: The following statistical model was calculated for every prognosis year (i = 3, …, 7):[Formula: see text] [Formula: see text] Comparison of the new statistical model and the simple linear model for adults led to relevantly lower MSEs and MAEs for the new model (year 7: New model: MSE 0.1, MAE 0.3/adult model: MSE 1069, MAE 18). The benefit of inclusion of cofactors was not relevant.CONCLUSIONS: This statistical model is able to predict long-term graft function in children with very high precision.

AB - BACKGROUND: No adequate statistical model has been established to estimate future glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in children after kidney transplantation (KTX). Equations based on simple linear regression analysis as used in adults are not established in children.METHODS: An optimal prognostic model of GFR was generated for 63 children at 3-7 years after KTX. The main regression model for prediction of the log-transformed GFR (logGFR) included the mean monthly change of GFR in the period 3-24 months after KTX (∆GFR), the baseline GFR at 3 months (bGFR), and an intercept. Additionally, we investigated if the inclusion of cofactors leads to more precise predictions. The model was validated by leave-one-out cross-validation for years 3-7 after KTX. Prognostic quality was determined with the mean squared error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). Results were compared with the simple linear regression model used in adults.RESULTS: The following statistical model was calculated for every prognosis year (i = 3, …, 7):[Formula: see text] [Formula: see text] Comparison of the new statistical model and the simple linear model for adults led to relevantly lower MSEs and MAEs for the new model (year 7: New model: MSE 0.1, MAE 0.3/adult model: MSE 1069, MAE 18). The benefit of inclusion of cofactors was not relevant.CONCLUSIONS: This statistical model is able to predict long-term graft function in children with very high precision.

KW - Adult

KW - Age Factors

KW - Child

KW - Child, Preschool

KW - Female

KW - Glomerular Filtration Rate

KW - Graft Survival

KW - Humans

KW - Kidney

KW - Kidney Transplantation

KW - Linear Models

KW - Male

KW - Models, Statistical

KW - Predictive Value of Tests

KW - Reproducibility of Results

KW - Retrospective Studies

KW - Time Factors

KW - Treatment Outcome

KW - Comparative Study

KW - Journal Article

KW - Validation Studies

U2 - 10.1007/s00467-012-2346-y

DO - 10.1007/s00467-012-2346-y

M3 - SCORING: Journal article

C2 - 23131863

VL - 28

SP - 499

EP - 505

JO - PEDIATR NEPHROL

JF - PEDIATR NEPHROL

SN - 0931-041X

IS - 3

ER -