Predicting lung cancer deaths from smoking prevalence data
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Predicting lung cancer deaths from smoking prevalence data. / Winkler, Volker; Ng, Nawi; Tesfaye, Fikru; Becher, Heiko.
in: LUNG CANCER, Jahrgang 74, Nr. 2, 01.11.2011, S. 170-7.Publikationen: SCORING: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift/Zeitung › SCORING: Zeitschriftenaufsatz › Forschung › Begutachtung
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Predicting lung cancer deaths from smoking prevalence data
AU - Winkler, Volker
AU - Ng, Nawi
AU - Tesfaye, Fikru
AU - Becher, Heiko
N1 - Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
PY - 2011/11/1
Y1 - 2011/11/1
N2 - Reliable data on lung cancer burden is not available from most developing countries as cancer registration is lacking. In a previously proposed model to estimate lung cancer deaths in those countries using smoking prevalence data, we estimated the current yearly number of lung cancer deaths in Ethiopia as 3356, a figure far above the WHO estimate of 1343 and the GLOBOCAN of 748. Our aim was to further develop and validate our estimation procedure. We included additional data on risk estimates for lung cancer mortality of ex-smokers and an approximation of duration of smoking into our model and reanalysed study results on non-smoker mortality, thus building two improved models. For validation the number of lung cancer deaths in Germany (2006), the UK (2006), Canada (2004), and Utah, USA (2000) were estimated based on all three models and compared to the observed number of deaths in these countries. We found that the refined model with a modified estimate of lung cancer mortality rates in non-smokers and a more detailed incorporation of smoking dose categories estimates rather well the observed lung cancer deaths in the above countries. With this model, the updated estimate of yearly lung cancer deaths in Ethiopia is 2946 deaths, close to the previous reported estimate. If Ethiopian lung cancer mortality rates in never-smokers and smoking relative risks are the same as in industrialised countries, our models suggests that WHO lung cancer deaths may be underestimated in Ethiopia.
AB - Reliable data on lung cancer burden is not available from most developing countries as cancer registration is lacking. In a previously proposed model to estimate lung cancer deaths in those countries using smoking prevalence data, we estimated the current yearly number of lung cancer deaths in Ethiopia as 3356, a figure far above the WHO estimate of 1343 and the GLOBOCAN of 748. Our aim was to further develop and validate our estimation procedure. We included additional data on risk estimates for lung cancer mortality of ex-smokers and an approximation of duration of smoking into our model and reanalysed study results on non-smoker mortality, thus building two improved models. For validation the number of lung cancer deaths in Germany (2006), the UK (2006), Canada (2004), and Utah, USA (2000) were estimated based on all three models and compared to the observed number of deaths in these countries. We found that the refined model with a modified estimate of lung cancer mortality rates in non-smokers and a more detailed incorporation of smoking dose categories estimates rather well the observed lung cancer deaths in the above countries. With this model, the updated estimate of yearly lung cancer deaths in Ethiopia is 2946 deaths, close to the previous reported estimate. If Ethiopian lung cancer mortality rates in never-smokers and smoking relative risks are the same as in industrialised countries, our models suggests that WHO lung cancer deaths may be underestimated in Ethiopia.
KW - Adult
KW - Aged
KW - Aged, 80 and over
KW - Canada
KW - Ethiopia
KW - Female
KW - Germany
KW - Great Britain
KW - Humans
KW - Lung Neoplasms
KW - Male
KW - Middle Aged
KW - Models, Statistical
KW - Prevalence
KW - Risk Assessment
KW - Risk Factors
KW - Smoking
KW - Survival Analysis
KW - United States
KW - World Health Organization
U2 - 10.1016/j.lungcan.2011.02.011
DO - 10.1016/j.lungcan.2011.02.011
M3 - SCORING: Journal article
C2 - 21420756
VL - 74
SP - 170
EP - 177
JO - LUNG CANCER
JF - LUNG CANCER
SN - 0169-5002
IS - 2
ER -