Development and validation of a new statistical model for prognosis of long-term graft function after pediatric kidney transplantation
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Development and validation of a new statistical model for prognosis of long-term graft function after pediatric kidney transplantation. / Pape, Lars; Ahlenstiel, Thurid; Werner, Christin D; Zapf, Antonia.
in: PEDIATR NEPHROL, Jahrgang 28, Nr. 3, 03.2013, S. 499-505.Publikationen: SCORING: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift/Zeitung › SCORING: Zeitschriftenaufsatz › Forschung › Begutachtung
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Development and validation of a new statistical model for prognosis of long-term graft function after pediatric kidney transplantation
AU - Pape, Lars
AU - Ahlenstiel, Thurid
AU - Werner, Christin D
AU - Zapf, Antonia
PY - 2013/3
Y1 - 2013/3
N2 - BACKGROUND: No adequate statistical model has been established to estimate future glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in children after kidney transplantation (KTX). Equations based on simple linear regression analysis as used in adults are not established in children.METHODS: An optimal prognostic model of GFR was generated for 63 children at 3-7 years after KTX. The main regression model for prediction of the log-transformed GFR (logGFR) included the mean monthly change of GFR in the period 3-24 months after KTX (∆GFR), the baseline GFR at 3 months (bGFR), and an intercept. Additionally, we investigated if the inclusion of cofactors leads to more precise predictions. The model was validated by leave-one-out cross-validation for years 3-7 after KTX. Prognostic quality was determined with the mean squared error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). Results were compared with the simple linear regression model used in adults.RESULTS: The following statistical model was calculated for every prognosis year (i = 3, …, 7):[Formula: see text] [Formula: see text] Comparison of the new statistical model and the simple linear model for adults led to relevantly lower MSEs and MAEs for the new model (year 7: New model: MSE 0.1, MAE 0.3/adult model: MSE 1069, MAE 18). The benefit of inclusion of cofactors was not relevant.CONCLUSIONS: This statistical model is able to predict long-term graft function in children with very high precision.
AB - BACKGROUND: No adequate statistical model has been established to estimate future glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in children after kidney transplantation (KTX). Equations based on simple linear regression analysis as used in adults are not established in children.METHODS: An optimal prognostic model of GFR was generated for 63 children at 3-7 years after KTX. The main regression model for prediction of the log-transformed GFR (logGFR) included the mean monthly change of GFR in the period 3-24 months after KTX (∆GFR), the baseline GFR at 3 months (bGFR), and an intercept. Additionally, we investigated if the inclusion of cofactors leads to more precise predictions. The model was validated by leave-one-out cross-validation for years 3-7 after KTX. Prognostic quality was determined with the mean squared error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). Results were compared with the simple linear regression model used in adults.RESULTS: The following statistical model was calculated for every prognosis year (i = 3, …, 7):[Formula: see text] [Formula: see text] Comparison of the new statistical model and the simple linear model for adults led to relevantly lower MSEs and MAEs for the new model (year 7: New model: MSE 0.1, MAE 0.3/adult model: MSE 1069, MAE 18). The benefit of inclusion of cofactors was not relevant.CONCLUSIONS: This statistical model is able to predict long-term graft function in children with very high precision.
KW - Adult
KW - Age Factors
KW - Child
KW - Child, Preschool
KW - Female
KW - Glomerular Filtration Rate
KW - Graft Survival
KW - Humans
KW - Kidney
KW - Kidney Transplantation
KW - Linear Models
KW - Male
KW - Models, Statistical
KW - Predictive Value of Tests
KW - Reproducibility of Results
KW - Retrospective Studies
KW - Time Factors
KW - Treatment Outcome
KW - Comparative Study
KW - Journal Article
KW - Validation Studies
U2 - 10.1007/s00467-012-2346-y
DO - 10.1007/s00467-012-2346-y
M3 - SCORING: Journal article
C2 - 23131863
VL - 28
SP - 499
EP - 505
JO - PEDIATR NEPHROL
JF - PEDIATR NEPHROL
SN - 0931-041X
IS - 3
ER -